Phoenix 24
France’s presidential field is becoming more polarized as the center searches for its candidate.
Paris
A new Toluna Harris Interactive survey has placed Marine Le Pen at the head of voting intentions for France’s 2027 presidential election, while Jean Luc Mélenchon emerges as the strongest challenger in several scenarios tested. The poll, conducted for M6 and RTL, offers a snapshot of the electorate more than seven months before the scheduled vote and should not be interpreted as a forecast of the eventual result.
The survey gives Le Pen between 35 and 36 percent of first round voting intentions, depending on which candidates represent the other political blocs. Mélenchon places ahead of several potential centrist and social democratic contenders, including Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann and François Hollande in the configurations examined.
Former prime minister Édouard Philippe performs more strongly than Gabriel Attal among the potential representatives of the centrist camp. Attal receives between 12 and 13 percent in the scenarios in which he appears, while conservative Bruno Retailleau registers between 8 and 10 percent depending on his opponents. Éric Zemmour, Marine Tondelier, Fabien Roussel and Nicolas Dupont Aignan remain further behind in the survey.
Toluna Harris Interactive also tested hypothetical second round matchups. In a Le Pen versus Mélenchon scenario, respondents divided 69 percent to 31 percent in favor of Le Pen. Against Philippe, the measured split was 57 percent to 43 percent. These figures represent responses collected during the survey period rather than predictions about how voters will ultimately behave in 2027.
The study was conducted online between September 22 and 24 among 1,974 adults representative of France’s population aged 18 and older. Researchers used the quota method, and the reported margin of error ranges from approximately one to 2.3 percentage points. Candidate selection, turnout, alliances and campaign events could substantially change the electoral landscape before voting begins.
The political context is unusually open because Emmanuel Macron cannot seek another consecutive presidential term. His departure from the presidential field forces France’s centrist forces to determine who will inherit a political space that has dominated national politics since 2017. At the same time, both National Rally and La France Insoumise enter the pre campaign period with highly recognizable national figures.
The poll therefore captures a moment of significant political fragmentation. Le Pen currently records the largest measured first round support in this survey, Mélenchon occupies a strong position behind her in several scenarios, and the center has yet to consolidate around a single candidate.
Phoenix24: clarity in the grey zone.