Mario López Ayala, PhD
Mexico today lives under the illusion of sovereignty. Through a regime that simulates legitimacy, narco-politics has taken root within the State—from Tabasco to the National Palace—while an expanding militarization is redefining the rules of power. Amid an internal struggle within Morena, a sophisticated “Pax Narca” is consolidating as a silent pact between the Armed Forces, drug cartels, and political-administrative structures, sustaining the institutional simulation of the so-called Fourth Transformation.
The criminal indictment of Hernán Bermúdez, former Secretary of Public Security in Tabasco, exceeded its judicial dimension. According to Mexican journalist Raymundo Riva Palacio (2025), the case represents the rise of a hybrid faction within Morena, displacing operators linked to Adán Augusto López and reconfiguring internal networks of influence.
This local conflict aligns with findings by the Center for Strategic Studies on Public Security (CESSP, 2024), which documented how more than 450 municipalities exhibit shared governance dynamics between formal and informal authorities—an emerging form of institutionalized narco-politics.
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces have solidified their role in civilian affairs: the Belisario Domínguez Institute estimates that the Mexican Army is directly involved in 22 civilian functions, ranging from customs to cybersecurity. This reveals not just the militarization of public security, but a militarized political system.
Criminal organizations, in parallel, have evolved into hybrid professionalized structures. According to Campedelli and Prieto-Curiel (2023), they recruit up to 400 individuals per week not only for combat roles but also for administrative, financial, and territorial functions. In regions where the State has withdrawn, these organizations become the de facto authority.
The psychosocial dimension of this governance has also been documented by De Choudhury, Monroy-Hernández, and Mark (2015) in their study on emotional desensitization during the Mexican drug war. By analyzing thousands of tweets, they found a progressive emotional numbing toward violence and the normalization of cartel presence on social media.
Electorally, the consequences are profound. Gutiérrez-Romero and Iturbe (2024) show that the selective assassination of political actors does not suppress voter turnout, but it does narrow viable options—favoring candidates aligned with or tolerated by organized crime.
In this context, Claudia Sheinbaum inherits not a unified political project but a fragmented institutional architecture. Her legitimacy will depend less on internal decisions and more on her ability to navigate an informal coalition of power: military commanders, party operatives, regional strongmen, and criminal networks that, by omission or design, now behave as co-administrators of order.
Beyond domestic diagnosis, the real dimension of the crisis is geopolitical. The fragmented capture of the Mexican State is not just a governance issue—it is a hemispheric risk. As the boundaries between criminal, military, and political forces blur, Mexico becomes a contested space for global powers who see in this fragmentation an opportunity for soft intervention, migration control, energy manipulation, or hemispheric surveillance.
The United States, with its emerging “narco-terrorism” narrative, sets the stage for multilateral pressure and even diplomatic tutelage under the pretext of shared security. China and Russia, in turn, are exploring technological and commercial inroads in regions where federal authority is weakening. Sovereignty erosion is no longer a local issue—it is a regional strategic vacuum.
Mexico must urgently reassess its concept of sovereignty. Defending republican formalities is insufficient if real power lies elsewhere. The challenge is not only to recover the State but to rebuild it under new terms: where legality is not subordinated to violence, and governance does not rely on fear. This demands a gradual demilitarization of civilian life, autonomous territorial intelligence, and multilateral partnerships rooted in cooperation, not submission.
If Mexico fails to redefine its power structure from within, others will do it from without. History shows that sovereign vacuums never last long—someone always fills them.
Mario López Ayala is a senior Mexican journalist, geopolitical analyst, and applied psychologist at Phoenix24. His multidisciplinary work bridges strategic intelligence, cyber-warfare, and AI governance with behavioral insight and mental health. As an international speaker and strategic profiler, he has contributed to global forums on democracy, cognition, and digital disruption. Known for decoding power and perception, López Ayala explores narrative manipulation, societal resilience, and global security in the digital age. He is an active member of the United Communicators Organization of Sinaloa (OCUS).
References
Campedelli, G. M., & Prieto-Curiel, R. (2023). Recruitment dynamics of criminal groups: A systems approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.06302.
Center for Strategic Studies on Public Security. (2024). Criminal governance in Mexican municipalities. Mexico: CESSP.
De Choudhury, M., Monroy-Hernández, A., & Mark, G. (2015). “Narco” emotions: Affect and desensitization in social media during the Mexican Drug War. Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI 2015), 3563–3572.
Gutiérrez-Romero, R., & Iturbe, N. (2024). Causes and electoral consequences of political assassinations: The role of organized crime in Mexico. arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.06733.
Belisario Domínguez Institute. (2023). Civil functions assigned to the Mexican Army 2018–2023: Legislative and budgetary analysis. Mexico: Senate of the Republic.
Riva Palacio, R. (2025, July 22). Adán Augusto’s bombshell. El Financiero.