Anne Meng, in Winning the Game of Thrones: Leadership Succession in Modern Autocracies (Meng, 2020), dismantles one of the invisible pillars of modern authoritarianism: the fantasy that power can be inherited through mere biological proximity. After studying dozens of autocracies in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, Meng concludes that authoritarian regimes endure not by fear or charisma, but by building succession with rules. It’s not about elections or parties; it’s about visible structures that allow internal elites to accept continuity without risking fatal fractures. Without rules, there is uncertainty. And in politics, uncertainty kills.
Milan Svolik goes further: personalist autocracies don’t fail when they lose control — they fail when they lose control over the narrative of replacement (Svolik, 2012). The dilemma is structural. Over-cooptation breeds dependency without legitimacy; repression without strategy leads to isolation. That’s why succession becomes the most vulnerable moment for any illiberal regime. And if that moment is resolved by kinship without vision, collapse becomes inevitable.
In Latin America, the evidence is stark. Fujimori attempted a military-legal succession in Peru. Chávez left behind Maduro, an heir without charisma, propped up by armed co-optation and a collapsing oil economy. In Ecuador, Correa’s movement faltered without its founder, leading to internal warfare. Nayib Bukele, in El Salvador, has pioneered a model of algorithmic autocracy, combining militarized security and digital propaganda. Although popular, his re-election — presented as inevitable, and possibly indefinite — consolidates a system without opposition, elite rotation, or planned transition (Kendall-Taylor & Frantz, 2021). In his case, the future of succession is a carefully programmed vacuum.
Globally, the BRICS+ bloc promotes a new aesthetic of technocratic authoritarianism. The Putin-Medvedev tandem in Russia, the Xi Jinping–Li Qiang pair in China, and the Modi–Yogi dynamic in India illustrate models of non-democratic succession stability, based on dynastic hierarchies, functional nationalism, and civilian surveillance technologies. In these contexts, succession isn’t contested — it’s designed within the software of power.
Mexico now borders that abyss. After six years of power concentration and a rhetoric of civilizational refoundation, López Obrador’s movement faces its hardest test: not the presidential election — already settled — but its own structural survival. And here emerges, not as a protagonist but as a symptom, the figure of Andrés Manuel López Beltrán. Andy — as he is known — has never been a candidate, spokesperson, or formal leader. Yet for years, his mere mention within Morena’s machinery was read as a signal, a genetic pulse of power.
Andy hasn’t disappeared. He remains within the opaque circuit of informal power, operating with a technical profile, organizing events, speaking with governors, shaping lists. But his symbolic capital is exhausted. He hasn’t built leadership. He has no narrative. He has no social base or personal enemies. As Denise Dresser aptly portrays in her column “Adiós, Andy” (Dresser, 2025), what fades away is not a person, but an attempt to create a dynasty without the ritual of war or the sweat of merit.
Yet declaring him defeated would be naïve. Sources close to political groups in Tabasco — consulted by Phoenix24 — indicate that from the Palenque “war room,” former President López Obrador maintains an active political cell whose mission is less about intervening in Sheinbaum’s government and more about safeguarding Morena’s territorial machinery. A kind of Mexican-style Council of Guardians: discreet, patrimonial, and ready to reactivate informal succession if the presidency weakens too much.
Meanwhile, the internal war between Morena factions grows increasingly open. Claudia Sheinbaum has tried to assert institutional independence, implementing technical replacements in key areas such as security, education, and communications, yet structural control over the power apparatus remains elusive. She does not govern alone — or entirely. Power hasn’t transitioned — it remains in dispute.
The narrative of republican austerity — a core tenet of the Fourth Transformation — is collapsing under its own weight. In late July 2025, Andrés “Andy” Manuel López Beltrán, son of former president López Obrador and current Secretary of Organization for Morena, was spotted in Tokyo, Japan, visiting exclusive areas and staying at upscale hotels (Infobae, 2025). He was accompanied by Daniel Asaf Manjarrez, former head of the presidential security detail and now a federal legislator, widely regarded as one of AMLO’s most loyal operators. The images — first leaked by independent media and later amplified online — not only exposed a trip outside the bounds of austerity but also revealed a symbolic power elite in motion, acting without official titles but with de facto privileges. Unlike previous scandals, this time there were no denials, no narrative control, no disciplined spokespersons. Only silence. A silence now read not as calculation, but as strategic disdain. The contradiction was damning: the son of the founder of the austere republic, in Tokyo, alongside his former institutional security chief, now a congressman, with no explanation for the trip or its purpose. A scene that could summarize the shift from moral power to patrimonial privilege.
Other top figures of López Obrador’s inner circle have followed similar dissonance. Mario Delgado, now head of the Education Ministry and aspiring transexenal operator, was seen on executive flights to Europe with family and advisors, with no official agenda confirmed. Ricardo Monreal, the eternal political tightrope walker, was vacationing in Spain with his wife, celebrating their anniversary (Crónica, 2025; El País, 2025). Although he clarified the trip was self-funded, President Sheinbaum criticized it as a breach of Morena’s austerity discourse. “Power must be exercised with humility,” she said, emphasizing that each member would be judged by their record and behavior (El País, 2025). Adán Augusto López, meanwhile, has been linked in various investigations to operatives tied to the criminal group “La Barredora” in southern Mexico, through networks of political financing and institutional shielding. Though these ties haven’t been legally confirmed, the pattern is clear: the gap between moral discourse and power practice has become untenable.
All this unfolds amid silent institutional decay. Economic growth hovers below 1.8% in real terms. Labor informality exceeds 56%. Organized crime controls not just routes, but municipalities. According to Insight Crime and the National Security Observatory (Insight Crime, 2025), over 40% of Mexico’s municipalities show signs of partial capture by criminal organizations, whether through political funding, institutional extortion, or replacement of local authorities.
What remains is not succession, but a war of shadows. A president strong in democratic legitimacy but weak in territorial control. A former president still popular but lacking a unified party. A symbolic heir drained, yet still present. And a political machine turned battlefield of crossed loyalties and disputed spoils.
Because if Meng, Svolik, Linz, and the political history of modern autocracies teach us anything, it’s that power is not inherited like an estate. Power must be built, managed, defended. And when the name isn’t enough, what emerges is not a void — but chaos.
Mario López Ayala is a senior Mexican journalist, geopolitical analyst, and applied psychologist at Phoenix24. His multidisciplinary work merges strategic intelligence, cyber-warfare, and algorithmic governance with behavioral analysis and mental health. As an international speaker and strategic profiler, he has contributed to global forums on democracy, cognition, and digital disruption. Recognized for decoding power and perception, López Ayala explores narrative manipulation, societal resilience, and global security in the digital age. He is an active member of the United Communicators Organization of Sinaloa (OCUS).
References
Meng, A. (2020). Winning the Game of Thrones: Leadership Succession in Modern Autocracies. Cambridge University Press.
Svolik, M. (2012). The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge University Press.
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How Democracies Die. Crown Publishing Group.
Kendall-Taylor, A., & Frantz, E. (2021). The Evolution of Authoritarianism: The Politics of Survival. Foreign Affairs.
Infobae. (2025, July 25). Who is Andrés Manuel López Beltrán? AMLO’s son criticized for Japan trip. Infobae México.
Insight Crime. (2025). State of Organized Crime in Mexico. InsightCrime.org.
Dresser, D. (2025, August 4). Adiós, Andy. El Imparcial.
Crónica. (2025, July 31). “I’m not offending anyone by vacationing in Europe,” says Monreal. La Crónica de Hoy.
El País. (2025, July 31). Sheinbaum rebukes Monreal for Spanish holiday: “Power must be exercised with humility”. El País México.