Phoenix 24
Military superiority has produced destruction, but not the political surrender the United States anticipated.
WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES
Six months after the United States and Israel launched surprise attacks against Iran, the campaign has evolved from a promised rapid operation into a prolonged war of attrition. President Donald Trump initially described the intervention as a “brief excursion,” while his administration presented the damage inflicted on Iran’s armed forces and nuclear facilities as evidence of an overwhelming victory. Tehran, however, neither surrendered nor experienced the leadership collapse Washington expected.
A memorandum of understanding negotiated through Pakistani mediation reduced the intensity of the conflict in June, but it did not produce a durable ceasefire or substantive negotiations. Both countries continued exchanging attacks and accusations of violations. Iran suffered considerable military and economic losses, including damage to enrichment facilities, air defences, naval forces and energy infrastructure. Nevertheless, it retained missiles and drones capable of striking American bases, vessels and regional allies.
Tehran’s most consequential response has been its disruption of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route carrying approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies. The resulting increase in oil prices, insurance costs and transportation expenses transformed an unequal military confrontation into an international economic crisis. Iran is also losing export income, but the disruption gives it leverage over governments whose economies depend on stable energy flows.
The conflict is placing growing pressure on American forces and arsenals. Washington has redirected military assets from Europe and the Indo-Pacific while consuming substantial quantities of Patriot, THAAD and Tomahawk missiles. Estimates cited by Euronews suggest that replenishing some of these weapons could take years. These calculations remain assessments rather than complete public inventories, but they expose the strategic cost of sustaining several security commitments simultaneously.
The nuclear question remains unresolved. American attacks may have delayed Iran’s capacity to produce weapons-grade material, yet inspectors have not regained full access to the affected sites, and the location of hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium remains uncertain. Tehran continues to deny seeking a nuclear weapon. Paradoxically, sustained attacks could strengthen the belief among Iranian leaders that only a nuclear deterrent can guarantee the regime’s survival.
Washington now faces two damaging choices: withdraw without achieving its declared objectives or continue absorbing military, economic and political costs without assurance of a decisive outcome. Iran has been severely weakened, but not defeated. The United States has demonstrated its capacity to destroy targets, but not to convert destruction into a stable regional order. Meanwhile, civilians across Iran and the Gulf bear the consequences of a war for which neither side has articulated a credible exit.
Hechos que no se doblan. / Facts that do not bend.