The battlefield is moving closer to Ethiopia’s economic lifeline.
Addis Ababa
Fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified as forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front push into neighboring Afar, raising fears that the country could be sliding back toward the scale of conflict seen between 2020 and 2022. TPLF fighters have reportedly captured Erebti and are advancing toward Afdeera, roughly 100 kilometers farther east. Humanitarian estimates suggest that at least 150,000 people may already have been displaced in Afar alone. The offensive expands the conflict beyond Tigray and places pressure on territory critical to Ethiopia’s trade and fuel supply.
The strategic importance of Afar is difficult to overstate. Ethiopia depends heavily on the corridor connecting Addis Ababa with the port of Djibouti, through which almost all of the country’s international trade passes. Any advance threatening the Semera-Djibouti route could give rebel forces significant leverage over the federal government by placing commercial supply lines at risk. At the same time, disrupting that corridor could complicate relations with Djibouti, which remains an essential regional partner.
The renewed offensive comes as Ethiopia’s army accuses Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of supporting armed groups fighting federal forces. Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula has argued that the rebels could not sustain their campaign without external backing. Sudan has rejected the accusation as unfounded. The claims have not been independently verified, but they demonstrate how Ethiopia’s internal war is becoming increasingly entangled with regional rivalries.
The TPLF is no longer operating alone. It has joined six other armed organizations in the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition that includes Amhara Fano nationalists and the Oromo Liberation Army. The alliance says it seeks to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish a transitional administration. Its composition is striking because some of these groups fought on opposing sides during the previous war.
The humanitarian consequences are already expanding. Communications in Tigray have been severely disrupted, while reports of drone attacks and civilian harm have prompted concern from the United Nations. The African Union has called for restraint and an immediate return to negotiations under the Pretoria peace framework that ended the previous war.
The central danger is now strategic as well as military. If fighting reaches Ethiopia’s principal trade corridor while neighboring states become more deeply involved, a renewed civil conflict could evolve into a broader crisis across the Horn of Africa.
When internal wars reach economic lifelines, regional borders stop containing the risk.