Riyadh, September 2025. The Gulf has always been defined by oil, religion, and power. Yet in this decade, those three pillars are merging into something far more complex: a techno-political architecture where artificial intelligence, Islamic finance, and political Islam converge to sustain regimes in a world drifting toward multipolarity. The desert monarchies are no longer just exporters of hydrocarbons; they are becoming laboratories of petroalgorithms, where data is the new oil and legitimacy is coded into algorithms that blend theology with surveillance.
The promise of “digital caliphates” is not rhetorical. Across Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha, ruling elites are investing in artificial intelligence projects framed not simply as technological innovation but as instruments of religiously infused governance. National AI strategies speak of efficiency, sustainability and progress, but beneath the rhetoric lies a clear agenda: algorithmic systems that monitor dissent, regulate financial flows through Islamic banking frameworks, and sustain narratives of divine legitimacy in a region where political religion remains inseparable from statecraft.
This model is reinforced by energy power. Sovereign wealth funds built on decades of oil rents are now repurposed into megaprojects of AI research, cybersecurity infrastructures, and smart city experiments. Neom, Masdar and Lusail are marketed as visions of green modernity, but they also function as prototypes of authoritarian futurism—spaces where surveillance, biometrics and algorithmic governance are normalized under the promise of innovation.
At the same time, Gulf states are repositioning themselves within the BRICS+ orbit, seeking partnerships with China and Russia that reinforce this model of digital sovereignty. Beijing exports its surveillance architecture, while Moscow provides strategic hedging against Western pressure. The result is a convergence of authoritarian technologies that strengthens the Gulf’s ability to police its societies, while presenting itself internationally as a vanguard of stability in turbulent times.
Religion remains central to this architecture. By embedding AI into Islamic finance, Gulf regimes frame their technological leap as a continuation of divine order rather than a rupture with tradition. Petroalgorithms, in this sense, are not just tools of control; they are ideological instruments, redefining what it means to govern under the banner of faith in the twenty-first century. This synthesis allows rulers to preserve legitimacy while adopting global technologies that might otherwise undermine traditional authority.
The risks are profound. As algorithms regulate dissent, predict political behavior, and even shape educational curricula, the line between spiritual guidance and digital coercion disappears. The Gulf’s experiment with technocratic Islam may appear modern on the surface, but it consolidates a form of algorithmic authoritarianism that could spread far beyond the region. In a world where surveillance technologies are already in demand, the Gulf’s hybrid model of faith and futurism may become one of its most influential exports.
The global energy transition has often been portrayed as the decline of oil power. Yet what we are witnessing is not decline but transformation. The Gulf is reinventing its dominance, shifting from petrodollars to petroalgorithms, from religious authority to digital caliphates. The desert, once defined by caravans and pipelines, is now wired with fiber optics and data centers. And in this transformation lies a question that extends far beyond the region: will the future of governance be democratic, or will it be written in the code of authoritarian faith?
Tarek Al-Mansour, Saudi geopolitical analyst and Middle East correspondent at Phoenix24, examines how the Gulf weaves energy, artificial intelligence, and strategic diplomacy to redefine the regional order, bridging tribal heritage with the digital architectures of the 21st century