Food production is shifting before the century ends.
Barcelona | July 2026
Spanish researchers have developed an interactive map that projects how climate change could reduce agricultural productivity worldwide through 2100. The platform divides the planet into highly detailed areas and allows users to examine how different warming scenarios may affect farming potential.
The model combines historical crop-yield information with climate records and future projections. Its calculations assume that crops and agricultural practices remain similar to those used in 2020, helping identify regions where current production systems could become increasingly unsustainable.
The data suggest that one in six cultivated areas has already lost more than 10% of its potential productivity during the past two decades. Tropical regions face the greatest decline, while some northern territories could experience temporary agricultural advantages. In Europe, northern areas generally perform better than southern and Mediterranean regions.
Researchers warn that nearly half of the global population could live in areas affected by declining agricultural potential between 2041 and 2060 under a medium-high warming scenario. The map could help governments anticipate changes in crops, technology and investment before reduced yields intensify food insecurity, rural poverty and migration.
El cambio climático también está redibujando el mapa de los alimentos. / Climate change is also redrawing the map of food.