Phoenix 24
Hormuz disruptions could rapidly destabilize fuel supplies and prices.
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM — July 2026. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned that Europe would make a serious mistake by believing its energy security is already guaranteed. Although international fuel supplies remain stable for now, attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have exposed the continuing risks created by dependence on imported fossil fuels.
A prolonged closure of the strategic passage could have severe consequences for Europe and the global economy. A substantial share of international oil and liquefied natural-gas trade moves through the strait, while alternative export routes remain limited. Birol urged governments, refineries and businesses to prepare for the worst-case scenario rather than assume shipping will continue normally.
Support from producers including the United States and Nigeria has helped stabilize refined-fuel markets. However, shortages and price pressures could intensify if the passage is blocked, particularly for aviation fuel, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas. Disruptions would also affect fertilizers, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and other commodities linked to Gulf production.
Birol rejected renewed dependence on Russian gas as a solution, recalling the economic damage caused when Moscow reduced supplies to Europe. He argued that expanding electrification, renewable energy and domestic clean-power systems offers a more durable response than searching for fossil-fuel reserves that may take years to develop.
Europe has reduced one dependency, but it has not escaped energy vulnerability.