In a market searching for reinvention, foldable phones may become the decisive break that transforms the industry.
Cupertino, September 2025
The foldable smartphone segment is approaching a decisive moment. Apple is expected to present its first foldable model in 2026, a move that could shift the category from niche to mainstream. Expectations are high: when the Californian company enters a field, it rarely experiments. Instead, it sets new standards.
In Asia, executives at brands such as Honor already describe foldables as the most aspirational form factor for the near future. In Europe, operators like Telefónica emphasize that the market stands at a crossroads, with consumer acceptance beginning to match technological readiness. And in the United States, analysts note Apple’s history of arriving late but redefining categories, a pattern seen with the iPod, the iPhone, and the Apple Watch.
Yet the numbers show that the path will not be simple. In 2024, foldable phones represented only about two percent of total smartphone sales in Europe, though they grew more than thirty percent compared to the previous year. Book-style devices such as the Galaxy Fold or the Magic V line expanded over sixty percent year on year, but still represented just one percent of the global market. It is an emerging sector with potential but still marked by fragility.
Forecasts suggest Apple could manufacture between eight and ten million foldable iPhones in 2026, with output rising to twenty five million by 2027. Market researchers expect the global share of foldables to double within two years, surpassing three percent of all smartphone sales. In a saturated market, even a few percentage points represent deep disruption.
Design reports point to ultra thin glass displays and side fingerprint sensors instead of under screen identification, allowing the device to remain sleek while managing costs. Once unfolded, the screen could reach nearly eight inches, placing it between a phone and a small tablet. Pricing estimates put the device firmly in the premium segment, ranging from fifteen hundred to twenty five hundred dollars. Some financial analysts predict an entry price close to one thousand nine hundred and ninety nine dollars.
Apple’s arrival would have global repercussions. In Asia, where Samsung and Huawei dominate, the balance of power could shift, forcing rivals to accelerate their innovation cycles. In Europe, where foldables are still marginal, the entrance of a global brand might normalize the format. In North America, the move could reinforce the perception of foldables as luxury devices while pressuring competitors to justify their pricing and design strategies.
Risks, however, remain. Durability continues to raise questions, as foldable screens often show signs of wear sooner than conventional models. High prices limit accessibility, and many consumers remain unconvinced of the practical advantages. If Apple fails to provide convincing answers, the format could remain trapped between technological novelty and functional necessity.
Looking ahead, three scenarios stand out. In the continuity path, Apple’s entry legitimizes foldables as a viable option, with slow but steady adoption. In the disruption path, economic downturns or persistent durability issues could relegate foldables to an expensive niche for enthusiasts rather than the mass market. In the bifurcation path, Apple’s ecosystem might unlock entirely new applications in education, entertainment, or productivity, creating a usage model competitors would be forced to follow.
Apple’s expected move in 2026 is not merely about launching another product. It is about testing whether the smartphone market can bend into a new shape without breaking. The industry watches carefully, and the outcome will define not only the path of a single company but also the future of how people carry, use, and imagine their most personal screens.
Phoenix24: clarity in the grey zone.
Phoenix24: claridad en la zona gris.