Supply may hold, but airlines are still entering a prolonged era of expensive fuel.
Brussels, Belgium
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary says he does not expect Europe to face jet fuel shortages this winter or through the summer of 2027, despite the disruption caused by the war involving Iran. His assessment offers some reassurance to an aviation sector already dealing with volatile energy markets, higher operating costs and uncertainty across major supply routes. The central problem, however, is shifting from availability to price.
Europe has been able to compensate for some of the disruption through higher refinery output and additional imports from Asia. Nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asian suppliers are expected to reach the European market over the coming months, helping reduce the immediate risk of shortages. Lower seasonal demand during winter should also ease pressure on inventories. This combination gives airlines greater confidence that physical supply can remain stable unless another major disruption occurs.
The price environment is far more difficult. Jet fuel prices in Europe have risen significantly faster than crude oil since the conflict intensified, reflecting attacks on refineries, tighter diesel markets and constraints in refining and tanker capacity. In early October, average jet fuel prices in Europe and the wider Commonwealth of Independent States region were approaching $196 per barrel, more than double their level a year earlier.
The traditional relationship between crude and aviation fuel has also changed. Jet fuel historically traded at a relatively modest premium over Brent crude, but that difference has expanded sharply. O’Leary expects elevated fuel costs to persist for another 12 to 18 months, meaning airlines may have to absorb higher expenses even if outright shortages are avoided.
Ryanair has already adjusted its operations to reduce exposure. The airline recently cut its winter schedule and lowered its annual passenger target from 216 million to 214 million. Such decisions illustrate how fuel prices can affect capacity long before physical scarcity appears. Airlines do not need to run out of fuel for an energy shock to influence fares, routes and profitability.
The wider European aviation sector therefore faces a paradox. Supply chains may remain functional, but the cost of maintaining them is becoming structurally higher. Strategic reserves, alternative imports and refinery adjustments can prevent shortages, but they cannot fully neutralize the geopolitical premium created by conflict and infrastructure disruption.
For passengers, the consequences may appear gradually through reduced frequencies, tighter capacity and higher ticket prices rather than through grounded aircraft. For airlines, resilience will increasingly depend on hedging strategies, fleet efficiency and the ability to operate profitably in a higher-cost energy environment.
Energy security is not only about having fuel, but about being able to afford it.