The region’s ports, cables and navigation systems have become strategic terrain below the threshold of open war.
WARSAW, POLAND
Poland and its NATO partners are strengthening security across the Baltic Sea amid growing concern about espionage, sabotage and disruption attributed to Russia. A report by Poland’s Centre for Eastern Studies identifies repeated photography of ports and terminals, unauthorized drone flights, daily cyberattacks and interference with satellite-navigation signals as central threats.
The Baltic’s strategic importance extends far beyond military geography. Polish ports process more than 40% of the value of the country’s foreign trade, while regional terminals provide energy and raw materials to Poland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states. The same infrastructure could support NATO forces during a crisis, making commercial ports potential intelligence and sabotage targets.
Navigation interference reportedly originating around Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg can disrupt aircraft and shipping. Manipulated or blocked GPS and other satellite signals could increase the risk of collisions involving oil tankers and liquefied-natural-gas carriers. Cyberattacks against telecommunications and port systems create an additional route for interrupting trade without deploying conventional military forces.
Security concerns also surround Russia’s shadow fleet of ageing tankers used to circumvent sanctions. Analysts suspect that some vessels could collect intelligence, carry surveillance sensors or potentially launch drones, although responsibility for specific incidents must be established individually. Approximately 700 ships face restrictions imposed by the EU, United Kingdom and United States, but uneven enforcement and fears of Russian retaliation continue to limit their effectiveness.
NATO has maintained its Baltic Sentry operation since 2025 to protect critical undersea infrastructure, while Poland restricts photography and filming around designated strategic facilities. The EU’s NIS2 cybersecurity rules and its new port strategy seek to improve resilience across critical sectors. Yet the decisive challenge remains political: hybrid operations exploit uncertainty over attribution and force allies to decide when criminal activity becomes state aggression. Regional cooperation, rapid intelligence sharing and common response protocols will determine whether ambiguity protects the attacker or strengthens collective deterrence.
Lo visible y lo oculto, en contexto. / The visible and the hidden, in context.