Internal conflict is increasingly colliding with regional rivalries.
Addis Ababa
Ethiopia’s military leadership has accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting a newly formed alliance of armed groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula argued that the coalition could not sustain its challenge without external backing and also accused Eritrea of acting as a link between foreign sponsors and Ethiopian armed groups. No public evidence was presented alongside those claims. Egypt and Sudan had not issued immediate responses when the accusations were reported.
The allegations come as seven armed organizations have created the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army and the Amhara Fano National Movement, groups with distinct histories, territorial interests and previous rivalries. Their common objective is opposition to Abiy’s federal government and the establishment of a transitional administration. The alliance has emerged as fighting intensifies again across northern Ethiopia.
The most serious risk is that Ethiopia’s internal conflict becomes inseparable from disputes with neighboring states. Relations with Egypt remain strained by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Cairo and Khartoum continue to demand a legally binding framework governing the dam’s operation during prolonged droughts and the exchange of water release data, while Ethiopia maintains that the project is essential to its development and will not cause significant harm downstream.
Relations with Sudan have deteriorated through a separate cycle of accusations. Khartoum has previously alleged that drones involved in attacks against its airport operated from Ethiopian territory, a charge Addis Ababa rejected. Ethiopia, in turn, has accused Sudan of supporting Tigrayan fighters. Neither set of allegations has been independently verified, illustrating how quickly regional distrust is becoming intertwined with Ethiopia’s domestic battlefield.
Eritrea adds another layer of instability. It fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against Tigrayan troops during the 2020 to 2022 war, but relations with Addis Ababa later deteriorated. Ethiopian authorities now accuse Asmara of supporting members of the new armed coalition, while Eritrea denies those allegations. Renewed fighting across Tigray, Amhara and Afar has increased concern that the 2022 peace framework is weakening.
The central danger is no longer only the return of a large scale Ethiopian civil conflict. It is the possibility that disputes over the Nile, borders, armed movements and regional influence converge into a wider confrontation across the Horn of Africa.
Lo visible y lo oculto, en contexto. / The visible and the hidden, in context.