Droughts, floods and ecosystem losses expose mounting climate vulnerabilities.
GENEVA
An unusually powerful El Niño is disrupting agriculture, tourism and ecosystems across several continents, bringing severe drought to parts of Central America while contributing to dangerous flooding in South America. The developing crisis illustrates how a natural climate phenomenon can amplify existing economic vulnerabilities in a world already experiencing rising temperatures.
In El Salvador, prolonged dry conditions have damaged pastureland and threatened livestock production. Farmers in the country’s drought-prone regions are struggling to maintain their animals as insufficient rainfall reduces the availability of grass and water. During August, temperatures reached approximately 4.3 degrees Celsius above normal, intensifying pressure on agricultural livelihoods.
The consequences extend beyond individual farms. Reduced livestock productivity can affect household income, food availability and local markets, particularly where agricultural producers have limited financial reserves or access to irrigation.
Farther south, communities face the opposite problem. Heavy rainfall has caused major rivers to overflow in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, forcing evacuations and disrupting transportation and economic activity.
In northeastern Argentina, the Paraná River reached approximately 4.7 meters on October 15, prompting authorities to evacuate residents from threatened communities. Flooding also affected livestock operations, requiring farmers to move animals toward higher ground.
At Iguazú Falls, one of South America’s principal tourist attractions, exceptionally high water levels forced temporary closures of visitor pathways, including access to the Devil’s Throat viewpoint. The Iguazú River reportedly carried approximately six times its normal flow during the episode.
Such closures demonstrate how extreme weather can interrupt tourism-dependent economies even when the immediate priority is protecting visitors and employees.
The phenomenon originates in unusually warm surface waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Known as El Niño, this phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation alters atmospheric circulation and influences rainfall and temperature patterns across distant regions.
These relationships, called teleconnections, help explain why the same climate phenomenon can favor drought in some locations and flooding in others. They influence probabilities rather than guaranteeing specific weather outcomes.
Climate change adds another layer of complexity. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and increase the intensity of heavy rainfall under suitable conditions, while higher temperatures can aggravate drought by increasing evaporation and drying soils.
However, attributing every individual flood or drought exclusively to El Niño would oversimplify the interaction between natural variability, human-caused warming and regional weather conditions.
Environmental risks are also growing. Marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, are vulnerable to sustained ocean heat. A recent international reassessment published in Nature identified approximately 44% of reef-building coral species as threatened with extinction.
El Niño-related ocean warming can place additional pressure on ecosystems already affected by marine heatwaves and widespread coral bleaching.
The economic implications are increasingly international. Crop failures and damaged transportation networks can influence the availability and cost of agricultural commodities, potentially affecting consumers far from the locations where extreme weather occurs.
Sudan offers an especially concerning example. Severe drought is affecting regions already experiencing conflict and food insecurity, potentially worsening crop losses and reducing household access to essential resources.
Sri Lanka faces another set of risks, with anticipated changes between heavy rainfall and subsequent dry conditions creating uncertainty for agriculture and economic recovery.
United Nations development officials have warned that climate disruptions, rising energy costs and financial pressures may combine to deepen poverty among already vulnerable populations.
Scientists are also examining whether the current El Niño could rank among the strongest observed. Different monitoring agencies use distinct measurements, making direct comparisons difficult before the event concludes.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now evaluates Pacific temperature anomalies relative to conditions across the wider tropical ocean. This approach helps distinguish regional warming associated with El Niño from the broader background of increasingly warm global oceans.
The implications extend beyond meteorological classification. Governments, agricultural producers and humanitarian organizations must prepare for hazards whose intensity and geographical distribution remain uncertain.
Early-warning systems, water management, resilient infrastructure and agricultural adaptation can reduce exposure, but their effectiveness depends on resources and institutional coordination.
El Niño cannot be prevented through climate policy. Its consequences, however, unfold within economic and environmental systems shaped by human decisions.
The emerging global picture is therefore not simply one of extreme weather. It reveals how climatic disturbances expose existing inequalities in food production, infrastructure, ecosystem protection and the capacity of communities to recover.
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