Fewer deals, bigger bets, sharper calculations.
Warsaw, February 2026.
Central and Eastern Europe ended 2025 with a contradiction that matters for anyone tracking power through capital flows: the number of mergers and acquisitions fell, yet the declared value of inbound deals reached a record. Reported figures place declared deal value around €42.5 billion, up roughly 36% year on year, even as announced transactions declined to about 1,312 from 1,446 the year before. This is not a statistical quirk. It suggests investors did not leave the region, they concentrated exposure in fewer, larger assets.
That concentration reads as risk management under uncertainty, not as a sudden wave of optimism. The war in Ukraine, Europe’s slow growth, and shifting trade conditions have made smaller deals harder to price and harder to exit. When uncertainty rises, capital tends to move toward transactions with clearer strategic logic, stronger cash flow profiles, or defensible market positions. The “record year” is therefore better understood as a sorting mechanism, a market choosing scale and resilience over breadth.
A handful of marquee deals illustrates what investors were willing to pay for. One flagship case was the acquisition of the Czech pharmaceutical company Zentiva by US private equity firm GTCR for roughly €4.1 billion. Another headline move was Erste Group’s purchase of a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska for about €6.8 billion, showing that financial services, not just tech, can dominate value when consolidation is on the table. These transactions are not marginal. They imply that Central and Eastern Europe is being treated as an acquisition arena for assets with strategic leverage, in healthcare, banking, and distribution.
The structure of participation is equally revealing. Foreign investors remain central, accounting for a large share of deals by number and an even larger share by value. At the same time, local and regional buyers have expanded their presence, particularly in technology and professional services where domestic capability has deepened. This dual pattern matters. It indicates the region is still attractive enough to pull outside capital, yet increasingly mature enough to generate internal dealmaking momentum. In strategic terms, it suggests Central and Eastern Europe is not only receiving capital, it is building the institutional muscle to deploy it.
Sector composition reinforces that interpretation. Technology reportedly led in deal count, while financial services dominated in value, around €11.7 billion for the year. That split is logical: tech deals are often numerous and modular, while financial services transactions are fewer but structurally transformative, reshaping credit access, payment rails, and consumer reach. Investors are not only chasing growth narratives, they are buying control points in the economy.
Geography functions here like infrastructure. The region’s proximity to major EU consumer markets, its logistics networks, and its role in nearshoring calculations continue to strengthen its attractiveness. Policy milestones also play into perceived predictability, such as improved mobility regimes and a broader EU integration trajectory for parts of the region. These changes reduce friction, and reduced friction lowers the “border premium” investors typically price into operations, compliance, and continuity.
Still, the record value does not mean the broader European investment environment is healthy. It can also indicate reallocation within Europe rather than a continent wide rebound. Capital often flows toward regions that look like a “best available option” inside a constrained macro landscape. Central and Eastern Europe can benefit from that dynamic, but it also becomes more sensitive to shocks because concentration increases exposure to a smaller set of large bets.
For 2026, the outlook described is cautiously constructive, supported by public spending and EU related funding, while elections and geopolitics remain the persistent uncertainty tax. The deeper pattern is consistent: when the macro environment is unstable, investors try to manufacture clarity through deal size, asset quality, and strategic fit. Central and Eastern Europe is benefiting from that behavior, but it is also being tested by it.
Resistencia narrativa global. / Global narrative resilience.