Phoenix 24
The echoes of those sirens revealed not only alarms, but a regime grappling with fractured confidence.
Tehran – August 3, 2025
In the aftermath of the conflict known internationally as the “Twelve‑Day War” between Iran and Israel (June 13–24), Iran has established a new Defense Council under the Supreme National Security Council. Designed to centralize command across military and intelligence leadership, this body reflects growing elite distrust and an urgent attempt to stabilize internal institutional coherence.
On August 3, Commander‑in‑Chief Amir Hatami addressed senior army leaders, declaring that even the slightest threat from Israel must be treated “as if total”—an implicit acknowledgment of recent deterrence failures. He affirmed that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities remain fully operational, while emphasizing readiness for further confrontation.
The Twelve‑Day War erupted after Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and killing senior commanders. Tehran retaliated with Operation Promesa Verdadera III, unleashing over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones across Israeli territory and U.S. bases in Qatar.
Iran’s casualties were significant—over 600 killed, including at least 11 senior nuclear scientists—while dozens died in Israel. Though the nuclear infrastructure suffered major damage, intelligence assessments suggest delays of only a few months, not irreversible setbacks.
The newly formed Defense Council will include the heads of Iran’s army, navy, air forces, senior representatives from the Supreme National Security Council, IRGC leadership, the site commander of Khatam al-Anbiya, and the intelligence minister. Reports indicate that Ali Larijani—longtime advisor close to Ayatollah Khamenei—is poised to become secretary, signaling a further consolidation of power within trusted networks.
Critics inside Iran—including dissident groups—question the Council’s intent, arguing it may institutionalize repression rather than security, diverting attention from dire civilian needs amid water shortages, economic decline, and mounting public discontent.
International analysts emphasize the wider implications. CSIS and NATO StratCom note that Iran’s structural response reflects a strategic recalibration from frontline warfare to internal resilience. Communication misfires—possibly IRGC-orchestrated loudspeaker broadcasts and air-raid sirens—have been interpreted as psychological signaling to both domestic and external audiences.
Economically, the Twelve‐Day War triggered spikes in oil and gold prices, while geopolitical actors including the United Nations called for restraint to avoid regional spillover.
Experts consulted by Phoenix24 describe the Defense Council as a response to an operational vacuum left by the war’s attrition of high-ranking commanders. With growing social unrest and accusations that public resources were diverted to military ambitions, this new body appears less about unity and more about survival through securitization.
Three key scenarios now define Iran’s strategic crossroads: if internal consolidation proceeds unchecked, the regime may evolve toward a technocratic security state absent of parliamentary oversight; if deterrent credibility fails again, further military escalation could follow; alternatively, regional or international mediation—by China, Qatar, or European actors—might promote gradual institutional normalization.
What is undisputed is that the sirens of June were more than emergency alerts—they were harbingers of structural fracture within Iran’s governing apparatus. The new Defense Council is not merely a response—it is a barometer of whether Tehran turns inward to reinforce regime security or outward to rebuild strategic legitimacy.
This piece was developed by the Phoenix24 editorial team using reliable sources, public data, and rigorous analysis in alignment with the current global context.
Esta pieza fue desarrollada por el equipo editorial de Phoenix24 con base en fuentes confiables, datos públicos y análisis riguroso, en coherencia con el contexto global vigente.